Published in German on March 5, 2026 by Walter Grobe
Translation done by Google, with corrections by the author
In my opinion, much will soon look very different from the alleged goals currently being touted by those in charge in the USA, Israel, and Iran.
The USA and Israel will not succeed in permanently installing a regime in Iran that might be more agreeable to them. How foolish is it to assume that relevant mass movements in Iran could support or even defend such a thing? On the contrary: the Islamic theocracy, or more precisely, the corrupt and anti-mass regime that has been in power there for almost 50 years and is long overdue for its downfall, will , from the attacks by the USA and Israel, only receive further impetus for its mendacious propaganda that it stands for the fight against imperialist hardship. However, there will also be no other permanent government in Iran that would implement the disarmament and renunciation of its own uranium use—whatever form that might take—demanded by the West.
From the outset, the clerical regime was not only a tool of internal reaction in Iran, but also of suppressing democracy and anti-imperialist independence, which the Iranian people so desperately need and which have been repeatedly and increasingly undermined since the overthrow of Mossadegh by the US and the British in 1953.
The fact that a theocratic and anti-democratic regime, embodied by a certain Khomeini, was grafted onto the Iranian anti-Shah revolution of 1979 was largely orchestrated by the West. He was brought from his exile in Paris to Iran, and initially, a rather positive portrait of him and his ideology was presented.
Many other episodes can attest to the continued, behind-the-scenes support of the theocratic regime by the USA and Israel, even after it had ostensibly declared war on the USA and Israel and its unpleasant aspects were allowed to be discussed in the West.
Consider, for example, the relatively well-known Iran-Contra affair under US President Reagan, when, during the war between Iraq and Iran (ostensibly over some border adjustments), not only the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq but also the Khomeini regime in Iran were supplied with weapons (and who knows what else) by the US and Israel. This brutal, protracted war between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988 was to be kept going at all costs, with the result that the regimes were able to consolidate their power internally. On both sides, millions of young people, the natural driving force of progress in any society, were sacrificed.
Why do I believe that, in the current chaos, many things will develop differently than its instigators predict? Not only because Trump and Netanyahu are rejected by the people, but also because the overarching global rivalry between the US and China is throwing some wrenches into some of their plans. …
The encroachment of Chinese capitalist power into regions the domination of which the US has long claimed and continues to claim, such as Latin America and Africa, cannot be significantly prevented by military coups and wars. It will rather be accelerated.
China, currently already industrially and financially stronger than the US (and itself tending toward imperialism), has certain advantages over the US in the eyes of the semi-colonial elites of these countries, at least for now: it offers enormous resources for industrial, agricultural, and infrastructural development projects and fosters greater economic exchange. In contrast, the US and „the West,“ including, for example, the former partial colonial power France in Africa, have always relied, and continue to rely, solely on the cheapest possible exploitation of raw materials and the stifling of these countries‘ own economic development.
However the current exchange of blows plays out, it will further promote China’s quiet expansion into the Arab-Iranian region.
The global energy dictatorship and dollar imperialism that have brought super-profits to the US financial system for decades are unsustainable. Incidentally, they have also created a political and ideological fog in the minds of some of its citizens and also of some other citizens of „the West,“ such as in Germany.
Remark 26-18-03: interesting analysis by Berliner Zeitung 17.3.26.
If the US itself, through this moronic war, demonstrates to many parts of the world that they must become more energy-independent, the previous economic profitability of being affiliated with the imperialism of oil and dollar will erode further.
A country like Germany is particularly hard hit, having been forced, under decades of open and covert pressure from the US, not only to forgo the very energy source that could have provided it with greater independence on a large scale: nuclear power. Even more shamefully, it was forbidden to even reveal who had cut off its small, temporary escape route—the supply of relatively cheap fossil fuels from Russia—through actions like the demolition of Nord Stream 2.
The powerlessness and humiliation embodied by the governments of the Federal Republic of Germany for decades—since Schröder-Fischer’s nuclear phase-out in 2000, since Merkel, the architect of Germany’s progressive ruin, and now especially since the current chancellor, directly linked to BlackRock, are unparalleled in German history.
Nuclear energy had been developed to world-leading standards by scientists and engineers in West and, incidentally, also East Germany by the 1970s. The fossil fuel monopoly of Exxon, Shell, etc., was threatened with significant limitations from this quarter, particularly due, too, to attempts to transfer nuclear technology to countries like Brazil, Argentina (and, interestingly, Iran), which had traditionally been completely dependent on the USA for energy. These approaches were politically extremely risky and were soon halted by the international energy policy dictatorship (the USA, with the complicity of the then-existing Soviet Union), naturally under pretexts such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which the USA and the Soviet Union had, for a time, jointly exercised international power.
Today, Germany finds itself in the uniquely absurd position of having to forgo own nuclear energy, unlike numerous other countries, and not even being allowed to diversify its purchased basic supply of oil and gas. France, China, Korea, the USA itself, and now also Japan, again, are continuing to develop nuclear energy. Even countries with far less economic and political clout than Germany, countries like the Czech Republic or Slovenia, and so on, are doing this. And Germany has to „voluntarily“ sever every remaining pipeline from the east that hasn’t already been blown up, supposedly to help „Ukraine“ achieve a victory no one believes in anymore, under the absurd conditions that Ukraine itself is still supplying and receiving all sorts of things from and to Russia. Perhaps Nord Stream 2 will now be repaired by a US consortium, just to add insult to injury.
The current wars waged by Israel and the USA will trigger a further surge in the relative impoverishment of broad segments of the population in many countries, including Germany, due to the continued increase in the price of oil and gas. For decades, energy policy, particularly in our country, has acted like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking economic substance and room for maneuver from the bottom up.
The question has already been raised from several quarters: is the current war also part of the Great Reset, the policy of the World Economic Forum, the club of the super-rich and super-powerful? Is it part of the policy of expropriating small and medium-sized businesses, disempowering national governments (except those of the USA and Israel), and further concentrating money and power in the hands of large global financial, digital, and energy corporations, which are primarily directly linked to the military and intelligence power of the USA?
(Addendum 09.3.26: This hypothesis—that this war is fundamentally about something other than substantial changes in Iran and that, in essence, collusion between the US and the mullah regime is once again at work—fits quite well with the reports that the mullah regime is shelling oil and gas facilities in neighboring countries and that the US is shelling similar facilities in Iran. Such facilities are likely to be of only indirect military importance, at most. But if the US’ real aim is to severely damage the economies of, for example, Europe, China, or Japan, to drive up inflation, to trigger mass bankruptcies that promote capitalist concentration and thus primarily benefit US financial corporations, etc., and if the mullah regime again plays a useful role herein, then such attacks would serve such strategic purposes.)
I am not very optimistic that effective political counter-movements against this progressive ruin will emerge in Europe. Neither from the political leadership and parties, nor from any potential mass movements. It will likely take time and more experience before truly large-scale citizens‘ movements emerge, if at all. I wonder whether there is even enough substance for such movements in these corrupt political circles of Europe, and whether most of my fellow citizens will, for the time being, prefer to have their brains emptied and the marrow drained from their bones by those who are becoming ever richer, more arrogant, and themselves increasingly incompetent.
